Three Questions, Three Experts Weigh In

The Olympic Marathon Trials are all but here and there's much to discuss and debate as the first members of Team USA are chosen for the Rio Olympics. RunnerSpace and DyeStat pro experts Chris Nickinson, Chris Lotsbom and Scott Bush break down Saturday's race and answer three pressing questions.

1. Who do you have winning the men's race and the women's race in Los Angeles?

Chris Nickinson (CN): I see each of these particular Trials as as the convergence of two groups, those with experience vs those with potential. It was very easy to go with the experience in our last Olympic Trials Marathon but in 2016 much of that crew is either retired or looking for one final shot of glory. Meanwhile, there are a few familiar names from the track world entered this year with potential to upstage the remains of the old guard.

All that said, I think it’s hard to pick against Dathan Ritzenhein and his experience. Reports over the winter had him a little dinged up but he hasn’t shown up on a starting line the last few years not ready to compete. The last standing man of the original internet era studs will give his fans something to smile about on Saturday.

I won’t pick against Shalane Flanagan until proven otherwise. She proved last summer that she still had the leg speed to hang with the kids by outkicking world champs 10,000m bronze medalist Emily Infield at USA’s. Still the most versatile American distance runner, Shalane will outlast Desi Linden in what should be an epic battle.

Chris Lotsbom (CL): From my perspective, it’s hard to pick against the marathoners who have performed at the most consistent level over the last two-plus years. That is why I’m going with Meb Keflezighi and Desi Linden. I always hesitate to pick favorites more than two or three days out from any race, but in my eyes Meb and Desi are the best bets right now.

Meb’s last race was the Duo to Rio Relay in Dallas back in December when he ran 1:04:06. While a majority of the rest of the contenders have raced at some point this year, Meb has been focusing on training. He has told me many times that in the marathon, it is the one who shows up a) healthiest on the line, and b) not over-trained/over-raced. Meb knows exactly what it takes to get his body into sub-2:10:30 marathon shape, what I believe it will take to win the title.

Similarly for Desi, she knows exactly how to prep to run her pace and execute on race day. Her performances in Boston over the years stick out in my mind, where she doesn’t let anything going on around her distract from what she’s set out to do: run an even race and get into that consistent rhythm. Lastly, that track speed she worked on could come in handy!

Scott Bush (SB): My two picks are based around who I think wants to win most. A lot of the top contenders have stated that a top three finish is all they are focused on, meaning they will really hammer the final miles if they need to, but it’s all about giving just enough effort to finish top three.

With that said, I am going to pick Dathan Ritzenhein on the men’s side and Desi Linden on the women’s side. I think Ritzenhein is in really good shape, hasn’t had to deal with a serious injury in a while and I feel this race means more to him than it does to guys like Meb and Rupp.

For Desi, I think she’s just going to grind the last few miles, and while I could very well see Shalane Flanagan winning, I think Shalane will ease off the pedal just enough to where Desi could create a little gap and run to victory.

2  How well will Galen Rupp fare in his debut?

CN: Galen makes the team but he doesn’t tap the well to get the win unless it’s handed to him. If he runs the race similar to how he’s run every USATF track championship 10,000m since 2009, with poise, his talent will carry him past the field. There’s no reason to doubt his preparation. He wouldn’t be in the race if Alberto didn’t think he was ready.

CL: I think it really depends on how the race plays out. If it is slow and tactical, with a whole group of men together at 21/22 miles then it has played perfectly into Galen’s hands and he’ll make the team.  But, if a contender takes the pace out hot from the halfway point on and keeps the pace around 2:08/2:09ish, then I think it could be a bit more dicey. In the marathon, anything (and everything) happens. One move could truly shake up the pack, thus impacting Rupp’s chances.

In the end, I think it’s 60/40 he qualifies. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t. Yes that is a vague prediction, but I just think that there are so many variables that will impact who makes the team.

Lastly, I think two things really play to Rupp’s advantage: 1) coach Alberto Salazar will surely have him prepared for covering 26.2, and will have put all of his own first-hand experience into Rupp’s training plan. And 2) The intimidation factor. Let’s be honest, most contenders will be keeping at least one eye on Rupp during the race.

SB: I think Galen makes the team, but I don’t think he wins. He is co-focused on the Olympic Marathon Trials and the USATF Indoor Championships and IAAF World Indoor Championships. That’s a tough balance, so I see him doing as little as possible and outkicking one or two guys over the final 800 meters to make the team.

My only concern with Rupp is how will he handle the hurt that comes to most after the first 20 miles. Running an amazing half marathon is a lot different than running a marathon and some of these guys making their debut are going to feel that hurt and not know what to do.

3. Who is being overlooked heading into Los Angeles?

CN: Where is the love for Jared Ward?! The 2015 USATF Running Circuit champ is one of the strongest second half runners in the country and proved last March on the streets of LA that he can handle warmer weather just fine despite training in Utah. He hasn’t had much trouble handling most of the names in the field the past two years so, it will be interesting to see how he responds to the Ritz, Meb, Galen types we don’t usually see on the USATF Running Circuit.

Annie Bersagel gets overlooked because of her European based training but the former Wake Forest star has shown maybe the most important quality for a marathoner - consistency. We’ve seen her run people down on the USATF Running Circuit while also running under 2:30 in Europe a couple of times. 

SB: This one is easy. Jared Ward on the men’s side and Annie Bersagel on the women’s. Both could very well make the team, but both are being overlooked in a major way. 

Bersagel is intriguing. She won the USATF Marathon crown in 2013, has run under 2:30 twice (both victories at the Dusseldorf Marathon) and was the second American behind Linden at the New York City Marathon. Everyone will be focused on Desi, Shalane, Kara and Amy Cragg, but I think Bersagel could very well creep up to finish top three.

And I agree with Chris on Mr. Ward. He was flawless in 2015 and I find it hard to believe he won't be up front contending with a few miles to go. He's quietly experienced at the marathon now and has been fairly quiet across the board the past few months, which makes me think he's been putting in some of the best training of his life.

CL: I agree with both of your picks guys, but I also think Nick Arciniaga, Diego Estrada/Sam Chelanga and Maegan Krifchin have been overlooked thus far in the Marathon build-up.  That’s a lot of names, but don’t forget them come race day.

I believe Nick has run 17 marathons. Has anyone run more in the field? His PR of 2:11:30 may be slower than Meb and Ritz, but he has shown he can hold his own. Diego and Sam are both debuting, and debuts can either be out of this world (like Ryan Hall’s was) or fall flat. I think they’ll more than likely run very well.

Last but not least is Krifchin, whose marathon debut was a quiet 2:33:30 in Hamburg last year. In college I ran a bit with Krifchin, and know she’s a fierce competitor.